Research & Writing
Ideas
Shorter essays and observations on markets, economics, history, leadership, technology, and decision-making.
Framework
A record of the questions worth examining
The writing on this site is organized around durable questions rather than a need to publish constantly. Each piece should make the underlying evidence and reasoning clearer, identify what is uncertain, and help the reader understand why the subject matters.
Evidence First
Use primary data, original documents, and credible research where possible.
Context Matters
Economic and market facts are interpreted within policy, institutional, historical, and financial context.
Decision Relevance
Analysis should explain what changes for an investor, household, business, or decision-maker if the conclusion is right.
Open to Revision
Conclusions should change when the facts, assumptions, or relevant evidence change.
Latest
Recent writing
Why Human Judgment in Investing Still Matters
Markets process enormous amounts of information, but they cannot determine what is appropriate for every investor. Human judgment in investing remains essential for interpreting risk, evaluating changing conditions,…
Approach
Read for process, not for certainty
Public writing is educational. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell a security and it is not a substitute for advice based on an investor’s own objectives and circumstances.
- 01Define the question
- 02Gather the evidence
- 03Test the argument
- 04State what would change the view
